Falling oil price has Alberta's opposition calling foul

Oil prices are down, sitting at around $85 a barrel, which means provincial revenues are down too.

Early in 2012, the government, using an average of forecasters predictions, budgeted to an oil price of $99. The decision now has the opposition on the attack.

"Will the Finance Minister admit that the government's budget is based on reckless and unrealistic expectations," asked NDP leader Brian Mason during the first week of the Fall Session.

For every dollar the price of oil falls, the provincial government loses $223 million of revenue.

"When we looked at the projections, when they were first released, we thought they were a fantasy, there was no way they could be achieved. We didn't expect that they would turn south so quickly," said Wildrose leader Danielle Smith.

The real problem with the falling price of oil for the Redford government is it's promised an $886 million deficit this year, and a surplus the following year, but the province is looking at a three billion dollar deficit if the value of oil stays where it is.

"The reality is last year at this time we were projecting a deficit - you know what happened? We were 23 million dollars away from a balanced budget," responded Finance Minister Doug Horner.

The government says that can happen again. But will it?

"The government is committed to balancing the budget. The question is how are they going to do it? Are they going to play games with the numbers? We'll have to wait and see," explained Grant Macewan University Political Science professor Chaldeans Mensah.

The games Mensah is referring to involve separating the operating and capital budgets, and balancing just the operating costs. The Canadian Taxpayers Federation says the result would put Alberta's debt free status at risk.

"The Quebec government, the federal government all spend tens of billions of dollars a year just to pay interest on debt - that's money that doesn't go into health, doesn't go into roads, doesn't go into education," said the Alberta Director of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation Derek Fildebrandt.

We will find out soon where the money is going. The next fiscal update is a month away.