CALGARY — TD Economics is forecasting Alberta to lead the country in economic growth both in 2012 (3.4 per cent) and in 2013 (2.8 per cent), but it’s not predicting “the return to the unbridled exuberance of pre-recession times.”
Canadian economic growth during those two years is forecast for 2.1 per cent and 2.0 per cent respectively.
“Alberta’s economy has been on a wild ride over the past several years. After suffering through a difficult recession in 2008-09, the economy has enjoyed a solid recovery since 2010,” said TD Economics in a report. “Supported by accelerating growth in the oil sector and rapid population gains, real GDP advanced at an estimated blistering 5.2 per cent last year, more than twice the national average, and with scorching population growth to boot.
“Indeed, last year’s pace of economic expansion was reminiscent of that chalked up during the 2006-08 boom years. Still, few observers – including ourselves – are predicting the return to the unbridled exuberance of pre-recession times. Still-low natural gas prices are one key factor that is likely to keep economic growth in check.”
TD said prospects for further solid job gains are expected to keep the unemployment rate low, at 5.0 per cent on average in 2013 – a level that is well down from its recession peak of almost seven per cent but above the lows of close to three per cent reached during the heights of the last boom.
“Housing markets, which have been slow to improve so far in the recovery, will likely buck the national trend and strengthen over the next few years,” it said.
© Global News. A division of Shaw Media Inc., 2012.