TORONTO - Who comes out on top of predicting Canada’s weather?
Many in Canada, especially those living in the West might ponder that question, after Environment Canada’s chief climatologist, David Phillips, said that they got it wrong when it came to predicting a colder than normal winter for western Canada this year. It's the second or third warmest winter on record for some of the prairie provinces and temperatures are about seven degrees warmer than normal.
Most forecasters across Canada and the United States also got it wrong. The Weather Network suggested a roller-coaster winter with major storms for the west. AccuWeather also forecast parts of North America would be hit with the worst winter in 20 years.
So, if you can’t bet on the weather office to predict the weather, who can you bet on? (And don’t count on Wiarton Willie to save the day. Meteorological records prove that the groundhog's predictions were correct only 37 per cent of the time.)
Jack Burnett, assistant editor and spokesperson for the Canadian edition of the Old Farmer’s Almanac says they also sometimes get it wrong. While Burnett says they’ve been predicting the weather at about a 70 per cent accuracy in the past few years, even advanced technology and observing patterns sometimes doesn’t work because the weather has been so wacky. This year, the Almanac called for a really cold winter for the Prairies, which hasn’t happened. They also missed the blizzards that British Columbia experienced. But in general they’ve predicted a milder winter in southern British Columbia.
“The way I describe it to people is that it’s like we’re making soup,” said Burnett. “Environment Canada takes its stuff and puts it in a pot and makes its soup. We take almost the exactly same ingredients and put it in our pot, but the two of us, we flavour it and cook it differently. We come out with different soups. It’s still weather soup, but slightly different. Some days you like the taste of one soup and some days you like the taste of the other soup.”
A sour taste is probably left for many people who have money staked on accurate weather predictions, especially if it’s a business driven by an abundance of snow. Burnett however says not to put away the snow shovels just yet, as winter is only half over.
“We’re sticking to our guns. It’s going to be colder than normal on the Prairies and the coldest parts will be in mid-February and early March. So there is still time.”
With files from The Canadian Press
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